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← Calibration ledger

Investing · How I think

Thesis

A lens, not a list of tips. These are the patterns I keep returning to across the memos — how I decide what's worth backing in health-tech and fintech, mostly across India and the US. Verdicts are moment-in-time; the ledger keeps the conviction honest.

What I look for

01

Distribution decides it

In health-tech and fintech the winner is usually whoever reaches users cheapest — owned networks, enterprise channels, cross-sell. I weight distribution and CAC over feature lists.

02

Underwrite the unit economics, not the GMV

I reward durable margins over scale bought with cash. PharmEasy's roll-up is the cautionary case; the profitable players are the counter-example.

03

In health AI, clearances are the moat

Regulatory approval and clinical validation are harder to copy than models — it's why a cleared diagnostics company screens differently than a wrapper.

04

Embedded beats standalone

Products that live inside the clinician or user workflow — and compound data as they run — are stickier than destinations you have to remember to visit.

05

Reach the underserved without burning the model

I'm drawn to businesses that extend care or capital to rural and low-resource users while keeping unit economics intact — the problem I worked on directly at Juno.

06

Price is part of the thesis

A company I admire can still be a PASS at the wrong valuation. Quality and entry price are separate decisions.

The verdict ladder

See the calls →
BUY

A clear distribution or regulatory moat, a credible path to durable economics, and workflow lock-in.

Abridge · Qure.ai · MediBuddy

HOLD

A strong asset where price or near-term execution caps the upside.

Tata 1mg · Groww · Innovaccer

WATCH

A thesis I find interesting but can't underwrite yet — unproven monetization or a catalyst not in hand.

Healthify · CRED

PASS

A company I respect but can't underwrite at the current price or structure.

OpenEvidence · PharmEasy

Where I focus

India and the US.

  • Telemedicine
  • Diagnostics
  • E-pharmacy
  • AI healthcare
  • Health insurance
  • Rural healthcare
  • Mental health
  • Women's health
  • Hospital infrastructure
  • Consumer fintech

How I keep it honest

  • Date the call

    Every prediction gets a probability and a resolution date, then reality grades it. No after-the-fact narrative.

  • Score, don't assert

    Memos rate five dimensions on a five-point scale, and the calibration ledger (0.134 Brier) keeps conviction from drifting into bravado.

  • Verdicts are moment-in-time

    Buy / Hold / Watch / Pass describe the call at today's price and moment — not a permanent judgment of the company.