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Forecast ledger

Each forecast gets a date and a probability when I make it, and is scored when it resolves. Indian healthtech, fintech and health AI, mostly from the memo library.

21
calls made
17
still open
3 of 4
resolved right
0.134
Brier score

The Brier score is the squared gap between the probability I gave and what happened, averaged over resolved calls. Zero is perfect. Always saying 50% scores 0.25. Mine is 0.134.

Resolving next

Every call

  • Groww lists in its 2025 IPO above a $7B valuation.

    Called Oct 2025, Listed 12 Nov 2025 at a ~$9B market cap.

    70%. Right

  • OpenEvidence raises at a $10B+ valuation within 12 months of its first priced round.

    Called Jul 2025, $12B Series D (Thrive / DST), Jan 2026.

    55%. Right

  • CRED's next priced round is a down round below its $6.4B mark.

    Called Mar 2025, $3.5B Series G led by GIC, Jun 2025.

    65%. Right

  • PharmEasy (API Holdings) files a DRHP and revives its IPO during 2025.

    Called Jan 2025, No filing; restructuring toward FY27 breakeven continued.

    35%. Wrong

  • MediBuddy reports a profitable full-year FY26 when annual results are filed.

    Called Jun 2026

    65%. Due FY26 results

  • India sees its first generic semaglutide (GLP-1) launch in 2026 after the patent cliff.

    Called Jun 2026

    75%. Due Dec 2026

  • PharmEasy does NOT file an IPO/DRHP in 2026.

    Called Jun 2026

    70%. Due Dec 2026

  • Abridge is reported at, or raises at, an $8B+ valuation by year-end 2026.

    Called Jun 2026

    55%. Due Dec 2026

  • Healthify states its GLP-1 patient-support program is >25% of paid revenue by year-end 2026.

    Called Jun 2026

    50%. Due Dec 2026

  • Groww's market cap stays above $7B through end-2026 despite F&O regulation pressure.

    Called Jun 2026

    60%. Due Dec 2026

  • Tata 1mg closes its reported ~$200M round at a flat-to-up valuation (≥$1.25B).

    Called Jun 2026

    40%. Due Open-ended

  • CRED does NOT post a profitable full-year FY26.

    Called Jun 2026

    55%. Due FY26 results

  • Epic ships or announces a native competitor to ambient-scribe / clinical-search incumbents by end-2026.

    Called Jun 2026

    45%. Due Dec 2026

  • OpenEvidence raises again at a $20B+ valuation by Q1 2027.

    Called Jun 2026

    45%. Due Mar 2027

  • Qure.ai closes a Series E of $70M+ by mid-2027.

    Called Jun 2026

    45%. Due Jun 2027

  • PhonePe lists on Indian exchanges before its SEBI approval lapses in July 2027.

    Called Oct 2026. SEBI approved the offer in Jan 2026 (valid 18 months); the listing was paused in March.

    55%. Due Jul 2027

  • Zepto lists on Indian exchanges by 30 June 2027.

    Called Oct 2026. Updated DRHP filed June 2026; IPO paused in July with FY26 losses of about Rs 5,900 crore.

    45%. Due Jun 2027

  • UPI processes 30 billion+ transactions in a single month before the end of 2027.

    Called Oct 2026. Record so far is 24.5B (Aug 2026), growing about 23% a year.

    70%. Due Dec 2027

  • UPI averages 1 billion+ transactions a day across a full calendar month before the end of 2027.

    Called Oct 2026. September 2026 averaged about 802M a day.

    45%. Due Dec 2027

  • Generic semaglutide passes 50% of India's semaglutide market by value before the end of 2027.

    Called Oct 2026. Generics launched 20 Mar 2026 and hold about 30% six months in.

    55%. Due Dec 2027

  • Novo Nordisk cuts Ozempic's Indian starting price below Rs 4,500 a month before the end of 2027.

    Called Oct 2026. Cut once in April 2026 to about Rs 5,660 as generics launched from Rs 1,300.

    40%. Due Dec 2027

Coverage

Memo library PDF

For research and discussion only. Nothing here is investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security; figures are drawn from public reporting that may be incomplete or out of date. The author is not a registered investment adviser. © 2026 Jay Kapoor.