Independent research · Investment memos
The Calibration Ledger
Anyone can write a confident memo. The harder thing is to date the call, attach a probability, and let reality grade it. Every prediction below carries a conviction level and a resolution date.
- calls tracked
- 15calls trackedPublished
- hit rate on resolved calls
- 75%hit rate on resolved callsPublished
- avg Brier score (lower is better)
- 0.134avg Brier score (lower is better)Published
- avg conviction
- 55%avg convictionPublished
15 dated calls
Prediction · Conviction · ResultGroww lists in its 2025 IPO above a $7B valuation.
Called Oct 2025 · Listed 12 Nov 2025 at a ~$9B market cap.
70% conv.HITOpenEvidence raises at a $10B+ valuation within 12 months of its first priced round.
Called Jul 2025 · $12B Series D (Thrive / DST), Jan 2026.
55% conv.HITCRED's next priced round is a down round below its $6.4B mark.
Called Mar 2025 · $3.5B Series G led by GIC, Jun 2025.
65% conv.HITPharmEasy (API Holdings) files a DRHP and revives its IPO during 2025.
Called Jan 2025 · No filing; restructuring toward FY27 breakeven continued.
35% conv.MISSMediBuddy reports a profitable full-year FY26 when annual results are filed.
Called Jun 2026
65% conv.OPENIndia sees its first generic semaglutide (GLP-1) launch in 2026 after the patent cliff.
Called Jun 2026
75% conv.OPENPharmEasy does NOT file an IPO/DRHP in 2026.
Called Jun 2026
70% conv.OPENAbridge is reported at, or raises at, an $8B+ valuation by year-end 2026.
Called Jun 2026
55% conv.OPENHealthify states its GLP-1 patient-support program is >25% of paid revenue by year-end 2026.
Called Jun 2026
50% conv.OPENGroww's market cap stays above $7B through end-2026 despite F&O regulation pressure.
Called Jun 2026
60% conv.OPENTata 1mg closes its reported ~$200M round at a flat-to-up valuation (≥$1.25B).
Called Jun 2026
40% conv.OPENCRED does NOT post a profitable full-year FY26.
Called Jun 2026
55% conv.OPENEpic ships or announces a native competitor to ambient-scribe / clinical-search incumbents by end-2026.
Called Jun 2026
45% conv.OPENOpenEvidence raises again at a $20B+ valuation by Q1 2027.
Called Jun 2026
45% conv.OPENQure.ai closes a Series E of $70M+ by mid-2027.
Called Jun 2026
45% conv.OPEN
Hit rate counts resolved calls (a partial counts as a half). The Brier score measures calibration — the squared distance between the stated probability and the outcome, where lower is better and a coin-flip scores 0.25. At 0.134 across the book, the calls are meaningfully better-calibrated than chance.
Coverage index
10 names · 4 verdicts- BUY
JK-2026-001
Abridge
Ambient AI · Clinical Documentation
- PASS
JK-2026-002
OpenEvidence
Clinical AI · Point-of-care search
- BUY
JK-2026-003
Qure.ai
AI Diagnostics · Medical Imaging
- BUY
JK-2026-004
MediBuddy
Digital Health · B2B2C
- HOLD
JK-2026-005
Tata 1mg
E-pharmacy · Diagnostics
- WATCH
JK-2026-006
Healthify (HealthifyMe)
AI Wellness · GLP-1 patient support
- PASS
JK-2026-007
PharmEasy (API Holdings)
E-pharmacy · Turnaround
- HOLD
JK-2026-008
Groww
Fintech · Retail broking (public)
- WATCH
JK-2026-009
CRED
Fintech · Affluent consumer
- HOLD
JK-2026-010
Innovaccer
Healthcare data · Agentic AI
For research and discussion only. Nothing here is investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security; figures are drawn from public reporting that may be incomplete or out of date. The author is not a registered investment adviser. © 2026 Jay Kapoor.